Let me quickly introduce myself: I’m
not a clairvoyant, a prophet or a seer. I however do believe that if things
remain as they are (and there is nothing in the past 30 years to indicate that
we will change for the better, or even resist the temptation to over-reach
ourselves), my predictions have a good chance of coming true.
The following are the scenarios I believe may occur before the year 2015
- “the great anxiousness” when Nigeria is expected internally to change
government through an improved national election (by incurable optimists), and
externally when we are supposed to self-annihilate (according to prophets of
doom).
My predictions are of course predicated on the obvious facts of our
current existence, and really do not take much intelligence to articulate that
the consequence of the ongoing actions, inaction and serial perfidy of
politicians and public officials can only mean one thing: near total collapse
of all democratic and state structures.
For those who understand their history, and appreciate the influence of
numbers in the natural order inevitability, figures matter. They really do
matter. Crunch these for instance…in Nigeria, our fate appears to be
intertwined with figure ‘3’ in every decade, even long before our 1960
independence. Not in the mould of being the third largest economy in Africa.
No, rather in a more draconian way - we tend to unravel politically around that
number, and then spiral into series of bungling and fumbling mis-steps and
misadventure; which over several decades have prevented us from progressing
speedily and sensibly as a nation, in spite of the quality of our human
resources and the quantity of God’s deposits upon our soil.
If in 1953, the Nigerian politicians had
positively received Chief Anthony Enahoro’s call for “a primary political
objective (for) the attainment of self-government for Nigeria in 1956”, we
would have embraced a fairly more Nigerian constitution rather than the
Lyttleton contraption of 1954; and Nigeria would have been independent four
years before she did in 1960. We would have avoided the Kano Riots of 1953,
precipitated by deep ethnic and partisan divisions within the polity. We missed
that chance; and were reduced subsequently by sundry setbacks.
The post-independence ego crisis between Chief Obafemi Awolowo and
Samuel Ladoke Akintola led to the Western Region crisis of 1962/1963, and of
course all the intrigues, skirmishes and conflicts were the harbinger of the
first military coup in 1966. Though, something good came out of 1963, the Mid-
Western region was created in spite of prevailing agitation in the west that it
was more of back-stabbing castration from the eastern and northern governments.
On August 12, 1963, the Mid-Western Region was born. Nigeria also received her
republican status on October 1, 1963.
The blight of the first set of indigenous political leadership reared
its head essentially from 1963 in preparation for the 1964 Federal general
elections - a fool-hardy, self-serving politicking that completely ignored the
prevalent dangerous tension and anger in the land. But the real detonator for
the Wild West’s ''Operation Wetie'' fiasco was the dubiously arranged Regional
elections of 1965. Its vitriolic over-flow swept in the military adventurers.
More importantly, the unreasonable weakness and confounding indecision of the
Tafawa Balewa-led Federal government to deal decisively with bare-faced hooliganism
and lawlessness in the western region persuaded the coupists that the
politicians had no clue on how to rule their rich country. Does that sound like
a déjà vu?
However, after surviving a couple of
quick-fire coups and a mindless civil war, Nigeria sort of straddled into some
peacefulness. But about 1973, the young Head of State, Gen. Yakubu Gowon,
strangely began to drop hints of amnesia concerning his hand-over date and
programme. He was no longer sure if
Nigerians needed civilian rule any longer. That indolence bought him a
bloodless palace coup in 1975.
And in fits and bounds, we staggered on
until 1983, when the putrid cup of purposeless politicians came crashing down
with the rude entrance of the Buhari/Idiagbon bloodless intervention. The
military’s return was arguably excusable because of the bastardization of
politics and demonization of honesty in the conduct of public affairs. In a now
usual climate, a prostrate president appeared clueless while his subordinates
traversed the entire country looting public till and flaunting their perfidy
across the national countenance with despicable impunity – and all the while,
Nigeria drifted about in rudderless and meaningless meanderings. Déjà vu?
1993 brought out the big lie in our
much-vaunted claim of the giant of Africa, as rulers of that period driven by
their Lilliputian sense of self-importance and inordinate grab and greed for
power, truncated what, until then, was our best attempt at national
political transition. The only profit we derived from the annulment of the June
12, 1993 election, truth be said, was a great and incessant devastation on the
body polity and psyche of the nation… a dull pall from which we are yet to
unfurl.
Of
course, we also remember 2003 and its emblematic presidential election,
internationally regarded as the worst election ever organized by any human
society. The fissures of that election will take political anatomists many years
to correctly and fittingly dissect and categorize for edification of the next
generation.
On these precepts, let us proceed in
streams that we are now familiar with….
My major fear is that the government of President Goodluck Ebele
Jonathan (GEJ) appears to be working furiously to breathe life into the lurking
demons that potentially may rule the coming year, 2013. The cold, disparaging
realities of 2011/2012 as expressed in
great revelations of incredible larceny and gargantuan pilferage indicate that
the cup of our current political actors is aiming for a resounding crash in the two years leading up
to the 2015 elections.
As it is necessary in matters
predictive, the elements of cause and effect is pronounced and self-evident…
therefore, we may say if thus and thus are allowed to emerge or continue, then
such and such may occur or intrude. The possibilities for reinvention are vast,
and incidentally opportunities for success are largely dependent on the will
and desire of political actors to follow the honorable and responsible path. We
basically choose how we want this present political drama to terminate. But
enough of putative generalities… now to brass-tacks.
If the President and his cabinet, the
incumbent legislators and state governments across the board do not revert from
their current “I-don’t-give-a-damn” posturing, and they continue to do little
or no work, and take unsightly remunerations; if they continue to transfer
national wealth to private accounts with scant regard for retribution; if they
continue to caress indicted thieves and cavort with determined criminals… the
year 2013 is a potent number that may herald tremors and terrors that will
suffocate corrupt leadership and up-end despotic do-little mandarins who
purport to be selfless stewards of our commonwealth.
As predictions go, there is no absolute
in this crystal ball. There is nothing to show that a change of heart and a
reversal from current insensitive directions may prevent untoward consequences.
However, deeply ingrained traditions
and human predilection for selective amnesia may lull the current political
players to underestimate the inevitability of centrifugal forces that have
plagued this nation right from the first Lagos election of 1923.
TO BE CONCLUDED
By Femi Akintunde-Johnson
(Writer, Journalist & Author)
Contact: fajswhatnots@yahoo.com
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